What Would You Shoot At TPC Sawgrass?

As March rolls around, we head into one of the best stretches of golf all year. From TPC Sawgrass this week to Valspar, a quick stop in Texas, then on to Augusta. It doesn't get better than this.

The Course:

TPC Sawgrass is truly a track where course management matters. Players and caddies who arrive with a well-thought-out plan are rewarded here, ball striking aside. An overly aggressive player may struggle, because there are places to be bold and others where finding the center of the green is the smarter play. For a winning score, I'd expect anywhere from -9 to -20 depending on conditions.

So what makes the host of the fifth major so special? Let's start with length. The course checks in at just over 7,200 yards, making it one of the longest on tour. That includes a 237-yard par 3, one of the most diabolical numbers we've ever seen, and a 601-yard par 5 on hole 9 that demands some serious conversation around decision-making.

Off the tee, players are asked to work the ball both directions, and approach shots need to land in a tighter window than usual. The greens are diabolical, and often the smart play is to take your medicine, hit the safe shot, and give yourself an uphill look.

Scottie commented Tuesday on why he loves this place so much. He said it's like taking a few steps back to the way golf used to be, and that no single play style has dominated here the way we see on other courses.

The Field & Betting:

This field is stacked with heavy hitters. We have to remember that the field at this event is only 120 players, and that changes the dynamics a bit. If you want to take a flyer on a guy to make the cut that you have conviction about, do it. The odds are better that it happens due to fewer total players.

Heavy favorites include Scheffler, Morikawa, Ludvig, and Fleetwood as usual. But what types of players succeed at this golf course?

We talked about the length of this course, but I think what really matters is putting yourself in positions to succeed. If Bryson were able to play, I wouldn't like him as a pick. This course truly penalizes you for hitting into the rough compared to others where you can get away with it.

Scheffler's iron play has been the worst of his career and he currently ranks 88th in strokes gained in that category. Rory is dealing with a back problem. So the two guys who have won it the last three years are ones I am out on, at least from a gambling standpoint. Scottie could win anything at any time, but he's not great value at +480.

My Picks:

Joel Dahmen Top 10: He is back with Geno and currently ranks number 1 in driving accuracy on tour. I see a poetic homecoming ahead.

Si Woo Kim To Win Outright at +2300: Another extremely accurate driver of the golf ball and his game is trending. An unbelievable short game, which Sawgrass will test you on over and over.

On the DraftKings Sportsbook (not partnered or affiliated yet, wink wink), you can bet on the winner of a group. I like Jacob Bridgeman to win Group G at +315. He is coming off a win at Riviera, and the other guys in that pool just haven't been playing well.

What Would The Average Joe Shoot At Sawgrass?

We talk a lot about what the pros do here, but let's have some fun and get real for a second. What would the average golfer actually shoot at TPC Sawgrass under tournament conditions?

The honest answer is not pretty. Think about your buddy who plays to a 10 handicap at his local muni. He is probably a legitimate 85 to 90 shooter on a normal day at a normal course. Now take away the perfect fairways he is used to, grow the rough out to four inches, firm up the greens until they are running at 13 on the stimpmeter, and throw in a 20-mile-per-hour wind off the water. That 88 turns into something that rhymes with "BUM hundred" real quick.

The 17th hole alone could wreck your entire mental game. It plays 137 yards, but between the wind, the water surrounding basically the entire green, and the pressure of knowing there is nowhere to bail out, the average golfer is making 5 or 6 there and convincing himself it is fine. It is not fine.

Here is the number that really puts it in perspective. The players who miss the cut at this event, the ones who fly home Friday afternoon and do not make a dollar, are typically right around even par for two rounds. Even par. Those guys are getting beat and feel terrible about their week, and they are still playing at a level that most golfers could not sniff on this golf course on their best day.

The bottom line is TPC Sawgrass humbles everyone. The best players in the world are grinding to get to 15 under. Your average golfer, same setup, same conditions, is looking at 95 to 105 and calling it a great experience. And honestly, they would be right.

Thanks everyone, and hope our picks hit!